Where Do We Go From Here? Strategic Planning In the Fog
The yellow bus lights glowed in the dark as my only beacon. I couldn’t see 20 feet in front of me on Highway 99 in the central California valley, but we had to get to Lake Huntington. The four cars packed with my companions followed my lead. At last, I saw the exit. Moving off the highway onto a dark farm road, my concern peaked. Where were the street signs behind the foggy shrouds? At last I stopped at an intersection and was able to see a sign, but only after I stood in the middle of a dark intersection looking almost straight up.
If you have been planning for the last three years, this story should sound like your attempt to plan strategically. Hugh Courtney’s Strategy under uncertainty lends us a flare in such dismal times. He offers a four-level framework for determining the level of uncertainty surrounding strategic decisions and for tailoring strategy to the uncertainty:
Level one: A clear enough future: Courtney states that managers can use the usual strategy tools in a clearer future as this. However, I see that medium and small businesses do not know what those tools are. The biggest private producers of jobs in this country, small business, usually work in a strategy void. Thus their decisions and plans are usually uninformed and a product of crises management even in the best of times.
Level two: Alternative futures: Outcomes are clear by hard to predict. Take the Ford Edsel, for example. The car seemed like a good strategy with a ready market, but it went the way of the do-do bird. This is where probability analysis can come in according to Courtney. For small businesses, look at the downside to each alternative. Is one downside greater? You may want to go the other way.
Level three: A range of futures:Taking Courtney’s cue, small businesses must limit their strategic options. Don’t take the shotgun approach and consider ten different strategies, for example, because you can. Your brain will explode, not a pretty site. Again, focus on the downside of your options.
Level four: True ambiguity: This option happens in an economic free-fall, or at least a controlled fall. More than ever, I recommend small business to take a Blue Ocean Strategy viewpoint and focus on the needs of your clients. Eliminate those attributes that your industry is providing clients that they can live with, e.g., meals on a commuter flight. You can take this approach for any other above levels, but at this level, it is usually a matter of survival. The wrong decision could land you in bankruptcy very quickly.
The yellow bus lights glowed in the dark as my only beacon. I couldn’t see 20 feet in front of me on Highway 99 in the central California valley, but we had to get to Lake Huntington. The four cars packed with my companions followed my lead. At last, I saw the exit. Moving off the highway onto a dark farm road, my concern peaked. Where were the street signs behind the foggy shrouds? At last I stopped at an intersection and was able to see a sign, but only after I stood in the middle of a dark intersection looking almost straight up.